Fed Rate hike is near 100%

March 9, 2017



BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB... Chart  1  shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) climbing to 2.55% which is the highest level this year. The 2-Year Treasury yield (most sensitive to a Fed rate hike) has climbed to 1.35% which is the highest level in seven years. Odds for a Fed rate hike next week are just about 100%. Naturally, that's pushing bond prices lower. Chart 2 shows the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) trading lower. That's just a mirror image of the rising 10-Year yield. What's a little concerning, however, is that corporate bonds are starting to weaken. Chart 3 shows the iBoxx Investment Grade iShares (LQD) falling below its 50-day average for the first time this year, its biggest drop since November. High yield bonds are doing even worse.

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